摘要：本文首先从市场的时空变化特点和结构特点角度分析了上海入境旅游市场的现状。近十年来,上海的入境旅游业接待人数处于波动状态，年度上容易受到外界的大型事件影响，年内受到季节影响。游客的旅游目的以商务活动为主，人群以中青年、男性为主。客源国分布较为广泛，但尤其以港澳台、日、韩、美游客为主。然后，文章使用计量经济学的方法发现对上海入境旅游市场起显著影响的因素及它们之间的线性关系，并以引力模型为基础得出关于美国来沪游客人数的模型。文章发现旅行社数量和轨交线路长度会对上海的入境旅游市场产生影响。美国的年均居民物价指数、我国同美国货物的进出口总额会显著影响上海接待的入境美国旅游者人数。最后根据上文得出的模型从三个方面为上海的入境旅游市场的进一步发展提出建议。包括有针对性地制定市场开发战略、大力加强配套保障设施和努力提高上海的综合实力。进入21世纪后，上海的入境旅游市场进入了快速成长期，细致分析研究上海入境旅游市场不仅有助于上海旅游市场的可持续发展，同时可以带动上海相关服务业与社会经济的发展，具有十分重要的战略意义。文章在撰写过程中大量搜集相关数据，使用实证方法对上海入境旅游市场进行分析研究。

关键词：上海 入境旅游 影响因素 实证研究

Abstract: Firstly, the dissertation analyzes the status quo of Shanghai inbound tourism market over the past decade from the perspective of temporal, spatial changes and structural features. Over the past decade, Shanghai's inbound tourism fluctuates. It is vulnerable to external large-scale events on year basis and seasonal change within a year. Business travel is the main purpose. Young people and male are the obvious demographic character. Origin country is diverse but especially Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Japan, Korea and the United States. Then the influence factor and the linear relation were found about the inbound tourism market in Shanghai, the model was set up about the US inbound visitors to Shanghai based on the gravity model. Conclusion was made that the number of travel agents and length of underground will affect inbound tourism to Shanghai. CPI of US and trade volume between US and China will affect American tourists to China. Finally, recommendations were made about Shanghai's inbound tourism market based on the model above in three aspects. Suggestions include targeted market development strategy, strong infrastructure and supporting facilities and improved comprehensive strength of Shanghai. Since the 21 century, Shanghai’s inbound tourism has expanded rapidly, concrete analysis of Shanghai inbound tourism market not only contributes to sustainable development of Shanghai's tourism market, but also promotes the related service industry and the social economy of Shanghai. It is of very important strategic significance. The dissertation gathers a large number of data while writing, uses empirical approach to study the influence factor of Shanghai inbound tourism.

Key words: Shanghai  inbound tourism  influence factor  empirical study